January 1, Economic Gloom Could Turn Midterms Red

Wyatt’s Take

• Economic confidence remains weak despite better numbers.
• Households feel squeezed as inflation and job fears linger.
• Any turnaround by spring could help Republicans in Congress.

Americans are heading into the holidays feeling uneasy about their finances, even though the economy looks stronger on paper. Only 26% of voters say they’re better off, and more than a third admit things are getting worse for them at home.

Polls show this is the most pessimistic the public has been since before the 2024 election. Back then, few people felt their pocketbooks were improving, and many saw things slipping behind.

“The single most important political indicator for any election is how people feel about their personal finances. If people are this pessimistic on Election Day next year, the Democrats will win the House handily and have a serious chance of winning the Senate.”

Current conditions echo the early 1990s when the economy looked better in reports but people still struggled day-to-day. Recovery numbers meant little to families battling high unemployment and barely-moving wages.

Now, official numbers look brighter.

The U.S. economy grew at nearly 4% in recent months, but regular folks continue to battle higher prices and fewer job opportunities.

Unemployment has crept up, and inflation is squeezing budgets, especially after a long government shutdown.

High-income families are managing well, but working and middle-class Americans bear the brunt of rising costs. Groceries and clothing cost more, and paychecks aren’t keeping up with everyday bills.

If the economy really picks up in early 2026 and inflation chills out, voters could start to feel some relief just in time for the next election. That shift could boost support for lawmakers who listen to the working class.

But if things don’t get better fast enough, or volatility sticks around, it’s likely many voters will head to the polls angry and ready for real change.

Read the full report

Wyatt Matters

Hard times at the kitchen table shape how Middle Americans feel about politics and the future. When Main Street struggles while the experts cheer recovery, folks know who’s truly working for them, and staying tuned in to real families will determine who wins trust—and votes—next fall.