January 1, SHOCKING Upset in South Dakota — GOP Establishment Candidate Forces Runoff

Wyatt’s Take

• Political outsider Toby Doeden shakes up the South Dakota GOP establishment by forcing a runoff election for governor
• Incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden now faces an uncertain battle as votes remain too close to call
• Trump’s silence in this race speaks volumes about the establishment versus grassroots divide in the Republican Party

A stunning turn of events in South Dakota has the Republican establishment scrambling. Political outsider and businessman Toby Doeden secured enough votes to advance to a July runoff in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Meanwhile, the race for the second spot remains too close to call.

This development represents a major blow to incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden, who now faces an uncertain path forward. Rhoden is locked in a tight contest with U.S. Representative Dusty Johnson and South Dakota House Speaker Jon Hansen for the second runoff position.

Rhoden, the longtime lieutenant governor under former Governor Kristi Noem, is a rancher who climbed through state legislative leadership before taking the top job when Noem moved to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Often seen wearing his signature cowboy hat, the western South Dakota native served sixteen years in the state legislature.

His focus has been continuing Noem’s agenda of making South Dakota one of the nation’s most affordable and business-friendly states. Rhoden opposes abortion, supports Second Amendment rights, and has worked closely on homeland security matters, including cooperation with ICE on immigration enforcement operations.

One detail raising eyebrows across the Mount Rushmore State is President Donald Trump’s notable silence in this crowded primary race. When asked about the lack of a Trump endorsement, Rhoden didn’t hide his frustration.

“I don’t spend a lot of time fretting about it,” the governor said.

“If you look at who he’s endorsed, he likes endorsing winners and seldom goes out on a limb. And here we have a four-way primary with a seated House member in the race,” Rhoden explained, suggesting Trump prefers safe bets over risky endorsements.

Representative Dusty Johnson, the state’s lone congressman, entered the race with a stronger statewide profile than the other candidates. His name recognition from serving in Congress gave him an edge many political observers believed would carry him through.

But it’s Toby Doeden who’s turned conventional wisdom on its head. Running as a political outsider, Doeden positioned himself as a populist candidate fighting against the Pierre establishment. Largely self-funded, Doeden sold himself as a conservative alternative to business as usual in the state capital.

House Speaker Jon Hansen represents the establishment conservative wing. He’s served in the State House for more than a decade and brings insider credentials to the fight.

The fact that an outsider candidate forced a runoff shows the grassroots energy in the Republican Party remains strong. Voters are still hungry for candidates who aren’t part of the political machine.

Why It Matters

South Dakota has long been a testing ground for conservative leadership, and this race proves everyday Republicans still want fighters, not careerists. When establishment politicians take voters for granted, they get a wake-up call at the ballot box. That’s exactly what’s happening in Pierre right now.