January 1, Key House Races Heat Up for 2026 Battle

Wyatt’s Take

Just a handful of House races will decide who runs Congress in 2026. Most districts are locked in, but these key battlegrounds could shift the balance of power.

• Only 66 out of 435 House seats are expected to be close contests in 2026.
• High-stakes races are happening in Arizona, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
• Party endorsements, new candidates, and recent redistricting are shaking up these elections.

The November 2026 midterms will spotlight fierce competition as both sides fight for control. While the Republican Party currently leads the House 220-213, all seats are up for grabs. Experts say just 66 races might be tight, and only 17 are considered true toss-ups, including key districts in Arizona, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington.

Arizona is in the spotlight with Congressional District 1, where many candidates are eyeing the seat as Rep. David Schweikert pursues the governor’s office. Democrat Amish Shah, a past contender, is running again, joined by over 20 others who filed interest forms. Republican Gina Swoboda made headlines after President Trump endorsed her candidacy.

“I am deeply honored to have the endorsement of President Trump as we embark on a campaign that will be centered around the common-sense conservative principles of economic growth and prosperity, strong and secure borders, and protecting taxpayers,” Swoboda said.

Arizona’s District 6, held by Republican Juan Ciscomani, will also be a battleground, with nine Democrats looking to unseat him. Arizona voters choose primary candidates on August 4.

California’s new redistricting measure, Proposition 50, stirs up tough battles. In District 13, Democrat Adam Gray barely took his seat from Republican John Duarte last time, with just a few hundred votes. Kevin Lincoln II switched districts and carries endorsements from Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson. Republican David Valadao is fighting to keep District 22, challenged by Democrats Jasmeet Bains and Randy Villegas.

“I will fight for my community every day, and work with anyone, to ensure that economic opportunity reaches every part of our community, and that families have access to the essential government programs that keep children fed and healthcare accessible,” Villegas stated.

U.S. Rep. David Issa faces a crowd of Democratic challengers in District 48, including Ammar Campa-Najjar, who says he is ready to turn the seat blue.

“Ammar is uniquely positioned to flip this must-win seat from red to blue,” his campaign claims.

California holds its primary on June 2.

Pennsylvania brings big fights in Districts 7 and 10. Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who recently flipped District 7, is now up against Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, endorsed by the governor. Incumbent Scott Perry narrowly kept District 10 last cycle, but faces another challenge from Democrat Janelle Stelson. The state’s primary is set for May 19.

“Ryan is keeping his promise to the people of the 7th Congressional District by supporting policies that grow our economy, protect taxpayers, address affordability, address illegal immigration, improve our nation’s safety, and preserve services for those who truly need them,” reads Mackenzie’s campaign site.

In Washington’s third district, Republican John Braun hopes to unseat Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Braun currently serves as state senate minority leader. Washington primary voters head to the polls August 4.

Turnout in these battlegrounds could decide Congress for years to come.

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Wyatt Matters

Hard-working families know every election shapes our future. With so much at stake in these races, folks in the heartland will be watching closely as the fight for our country’s direction comes down to a few key communities.