January 1, Jersey Governor Race Heats Up as GOP Surges

Wyatt’s Take

• Jack Ciattarelli closes big poll gap in New Jersey governor race
• Large chunk of voters remain undecided
• Blue stronghold shows signs of shifting

Republican hopeful Jack Ciattarelli has dramatically narrowed Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s lead in the 2025 New Jersey governor race, according to a new poll.

Just a few months ago, Ciattarelli trailed by 20 points, but now he is just 9 points behind. There are still 17% of voters on the fence, leaving the outcome uncertain.

“Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center at Rutgers.

Ciattarelli, endorsed by President Trump earlier this year, aims to build on gains among minority voters and working families. Recent surveys show he leads with voters who have some college or less, while Sherrill holds the advantage with highly educated, high-income groups.

Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman, has opposed most Trump-supported bills this year. She captured the Democratic nomination in a tight race, winning just 34% of the vote.

Other polls show similar trends, with Sherrill’s lead down to single digits, echoing Ciattarelli’s stronger-than-expected showing in his last campaign. In 2021, polls understated his performance by notable margins.

This isn’t just happening in New Jersey. Virginia’s GOP nominee has also gained ground fast, suggesting a bigger shift could be coming in next year’s only other governor contest.

The latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll sampled 1,650 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.7%.

Stay tuned as these races could redefine the political map for Middle America.

Wyatt Matters

This race shows a movement growing among regular folks who are tired of being ignored. Change is possible, even in places once thought unreachable by conservative values.

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