January 1, Why Smart Money Is Backing Baltimore Against Elite Ace in Crucial Matchup

Wyatt’s Take

• The Phillies are falling apart—five games above .500 after firing their manager and squandering a hot streak
• Baltimore has the talent but can’t seem to put it together this season, sitting three games under .500
• Despite Wheeler’s dominant numbers, the Orioles at +118 offer value as both teams desperately need momentum

The trade market finally heated up yesterday with a blockbuster move that sent shockwaves through the league. Two major pitchers changed uniforms, with Luis Castillo heading from the Mariners to the White Sox in a down year, and Tarik Skubal landing with the Dodgers.

Maybe we should just hand Los Angeles their third straight trophy now and save everyone the trouble. Two other teams to watch closely face off today as the Phillies and Orioles square off in what could be a pivotal series.

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a tailspin. This has been a bizarre season where they fired their manager after just a few weeks of poor play to start the year—a move that probably should’ve happened in the offseason anyway.

Then they looked like arguably the best team in baseball for a month or two. Now they’re just five games above .500 and likely heading for a wild card dogfight for the rest of the season.

The Phillies don’t have many trade chips, but they also don’t need much beyond another bat and a better back-end starter. Their rotation front is solid with Zack Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez.

Wheeler is 10-2 for the season with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP—one of the best pitchers in the game. He did have a couple rough starts in July, but he also delivered three quality outings. The Orioles are hitting .250 against Wheeler in 68 at-bats.

The Baltimore Orioles are also struggling, but they’ve been basically the same all year. They’re three games under .500, but they’ve never looked like a team ready to go very far.

Here’s the thing—the Orioles have the talent, but some years it just doesn’t click. This appears to be that kind of season for Baltimore.

Gunner Henderson isn’t having a great year with a .220 average, but he can’t shoulder all the blame for this mess.

The real issue is pitching and their rotation—they’re just not a very deep squad. They have some good arms, and their bullpen has improved lately, but they don’t really have a lockdown starter.

The closest might be today’s starter, Kyle Bradish. He was a disaster in his last outing when the Tigers jumped on him for 10 hits and five earned runs over 4.2 innings. Phillies hitters have struggled against him over 32 at-bats with a .188 batting average.

Maybe it’s foolish, but the smart play here is going against Wheeler. The Orioles are playing slightly better baseball than the Phillies right now.

Both teams desperately need this game for momentum and to win the series. Wheeler isn’t likely to give up a ton of runs, but Bradish should bounce back in this outing.

The money has come in on the Phillies a bit, but that’s mostly people just looking at Wheeler’s numbers and not the full picture. The Orioles at +118 offer real value.

Why It Matters

When two struggling teams meet, it’s not always about the best ace on paper—it’s about who shows up hungry. Baltimore needs this win to salvage their season, and sometimes that desperation beats raw talent. Wheeler’s elite, but baseball’s a funny game where momentum and grit can trump stats on any given day.